Performance of response spectral models against New Zealand data

  • Chris Van Houtte GNS Science, Lower Hutt, New Zealand

Abstract

An important component of seismic hazard assessment is the prediction of the potential ground motion generated by a given earthquake source. In New Zealand seismic hazard studies, it is commonplace for analysts to only adopt one or two models for predicting the ground motion, which does not capture the epistemic uncertainty associated with the prediction. This study analyses a suite of New Zealand and international models against the New Zealand Strong Motion Database, both for New Zealand crustal earthquakes and earthquakes in the Hikurangi subduction zone. It is found that, in general, the foreign models perform similarly or better with respect to recorded New Zealand data than the models specifically derived for New Zealand application. Justification is given for using global models in future seismic hazard analysis in New Zealand. Although this article does not provide definitive model weights for future hazard analysis, some recommendations and guidance are provided.

References

Stewart J, Douglas J, Javanbarg M, Bozorgnia Y, Abrahamson N, Boore D, Campbell K, Delavaud E, Erdik M and Stafford P (2015). "Selection of ground motion prediction equations for the Global Earthquake Model". Earthquake Spectra, 31(1): 19-45.

Stirling M, McVerry G, Gerstenberger M, Litchfield N, Van Dissen R, Berryman K, Barnes P, Wallace L, Villamor P, Langridge R, Reyners M, Bradley B, Rhoades D, Smith W, Nicol A, Pettinga J, Clark K and Jacobs K (2012). "National seismic hazard model for New Zealand: 2010 update". Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 102(4): 1514-1542.

Skarlatoudis A, Somerville P and Bayless J (2015). "Probabilistic Response Spectra for Christchurch CBD Ground Motions Incorporating Amplification Factors Derived from the 2010-2011 Canterbury Earthquake Sequence". In Proceedings of 6th International Conference on Earthquake Geotechnical Engineering, Christchurch, New Zealand, 1-4 November 2015, Paper number 367.

Bradley B (2015). "Benefits of site-specific hazard analyses for seismic design in New Zealand". Bulletin of the New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering, 48(2): 92-99.

Kulkarni R, Youngs R and Coppersmith K (1984). "Assessment of confidence intervals for results of seismic hazard analysis". In Proceedings of Eighth World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, San Francisco, United States, 21-28 July, Volume 1B.

Van Houtte C, Bannister S, Holden C, Bourguignon S and McVerry G (2017). "The New Zealand strong motion database". Bulletin of the New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering, 50(1): 1-20.

Kaiser A, Van Houtte C, Perrin N, Wotherspoon L and McVerry G (2017). "Site characterisation of GeoNet stations for the New Zealand strong motion database". Bulletin of the New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering, 50(1): 39-49.

Douglas J (2011). "Ground-motion prediction equations 1964-2010". PEER Report 2011/102, Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center, Berkeley, United States, 442 p.

Matuschka T (1980). "Assessment of seismic hazards in New Zealand". Department of Civil Engineering Report No. 222, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand, 214 p.

Katayama T, Iwasaki T and Seaki M (1978). "Statistical analysis of earthquake acceleration response spectra (in Japanese)". Proceedings of the Japanese Society of Civil Engineers, 275: 29-40.

Katayama T (1982). "An engineering prediction model of acceleration response spectra and its application to seismic hazard mapping". Earthquake Engineering and Structural Dynamics, 10: 149-163.

Peek R (1980). "Estimation of seismic risk for New Zealand". Department of Civil Engineering Research Report 80-21, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand, 84 p.

Mulholland W (1982). "Estimation of design earthquake motion for New Zealand". Department of Civil Engineering Research Report 82-9, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand, 97 p.

McVerry G (1986). "Uncertainties in attenuation relations for New Zealand seismic hazard analysis". Bulletin of the New Zealand National Society for Earthquake Engineering, 19(1): 28-39.

Matuschka T, Berryman K, O'Leary A, McVerry G, Mulholland W and Skinner R (1985). "New Zealand seismic hazard analysis". Bulletin of the New Zealand National Society for Earthquake Engineering, 18(4): 313-322.

Standards New Zealand (1992). "NZS 4203:1992 - Code of practice for general structural design and design loadings for buildings". Wellington, New Zealand.

Matuschka T and Davis B (1991). "Derivation of an attenuation model in terms of spectral acceleration for New Zealand". In Proceedings of Pacific Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Auckland, New Zealand, 20-23 November 1991, Volume 2.

Zhao J, Dowrick D and McVerry G (1997). "Attenuation of peak ground accelerations in New Zealand earthquakes". Bulletin of the New Zealand National Society for Earthquake Engineering, 30(2): 133-158.

Cousins W, Zhao J and Perrin N (1999). "A model for the attenuation of peak ground acceleration in New Zealand earthquakes based on seismograph and accelerograph data". Bulletin of the New Zealand National Society for Earthquake Engineering, 32(4): 193-220.

McVerry G, Zhao J, Abrahamson N and Somerville P (2006). "New Zealand acceleration response spectrum attenuation relations for crustal and subduction zone earthquakes". Bulletin of the New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering, 39(1): 1-58.

Abrahamson N and Silva W (1997). "Empirical response spectral attenuation relations for shallow crustal earthquakes". Seismological Research Letters, 68(1): 94-127.

Youngs R, Chiou B, Silva W and Humphrey J (1997). "Strong ground motion attenuation relationships for subduction zone earthquakes". Seismological Research Letters, 68(1): 58-73.

Stirling M, Wesnousky S and Berryman K (1998). "Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of New Zealand". New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics, 41(4): 355-375.

McVerry G, Zhao J, Abrahamson N and Somerville P (2000). "Crustal and subduction zone attenuation relations for New Zealand earthquakes". In Proceedings of Twelfth World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Auckland, New Zealand, 30 January - 4 February 2000, Paper Number 1834.

Eberhart-Phillips D and McVerry G (2003). "Estimating slab earthquake response spectra from a 3D Q model". Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 93(6): 2649-2663.

McVerry G (2011). "Site-effect terms as continuous functions of site period and Vs30". In Proceedings of Ninth Pacific Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Auckland, New Zealand, 14-16 April 2011, Paper Number 10.

McVerry G and Holden C (2014). "Incorporating simulated Hikurangi subduction interface spectra into probabilistic hazard calculations for Wellington". In Proceedings of Conference of the New Zealand Society of Earthquake Engineering, Auckland, New Zealand, 21-23 March 2014, Paper Number 054.

Arias A (1970). "Measure of earthquake intensity", Seismic Design for Nuclear Power Plants, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, United States, 438-483 p.

Stafford P, Berrill J and Pettinga J (2009). "New predictive equations for Arias intensity from crustal earthquakes in New Zealand". Journal of Seismology, 13(1): 31-52.

Stafford P (2006). "Engineering seismological studies and seismic design criteria for the Buller region, South Island, New Zealand". (PhD Thesis), University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand, 342 p.

Bradley B (2013). "A New Zealand‐Specific Pseudospectral Acceleration Ground‐Motion Prediction Equation for Active Shallow Crustal Earthquakes Based on Foreign Models". Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 103(3): 1801-1822.

Chiou B, Youngs R, Abrahamson N and Addo K (2010). "Ground-motion attenuation model for small-to-moderate shallow crustal earthquakes in California and its implications on regionalization of ground-motion prediction models". Earthquake Spectra, 26(4): 907-926.

Chiou B and Youngs R (2008). "An NGA model for the average horizontal component of peak ground motion and response spectra". Earthquake Spectra, 24(1): 173-215.

Bradley B (2015). "Systematic ground motion observations in the Canterbury earthquakes and region-specific non-ergodic empirical ground motion modeling". Earthquake Spectra, 31(3): 1735-1761.

Gerstenberger M, McVerry G, Rhoades D and Stirling M (2014). "Seismic hazard modeling for the recovery of Christchurch". Earthquake Spectra, 30(1): 17-29.

Bozorgnia Y, Abrahamson N, Al Atik L, Ancheta T, Atkinson G, Baker J, Baltay A, Boore D, Campbell K and Chiou B (2014). "NGA-West2 research project". Earthquake Spectra, 30(3): 973-987.

Abrahamson N, Silva W and Kamai R (2014). "Summary of the ASK14 ground motion relation for active crustal regions". Earthquake Spectra, 30(3): 1025-1055.

Boore D, Stewart J, Seyhan E and Atkinson G (2014). "NGA-West2 equations for predicting PGA, PGV, and 5% damped PSA for shallow crustal earthquakes". Earthquake Spectra, 30(3): 1057-1085.

Campbell K and Bozorgnia Y (2014). "NGA-West2 ground motion model for the average horizontal components of PGA, PGV, and 5% damped linear acceleration response spectra". Earthquake Spectra, 30(3): 1087-1115.

Chiou B and Youngs R (2014). "Update of the Chiou and Youngs NGA model for the average horizontal component of peak ground motion and response spectra". Earthquake Spectra, 30(3): 1117-1153.

Idriss I (2014). "An NGA-West2 empirical model for estimating the horizontal spectral values generated by shallow crustal earthquakes". Earthquake Spectra, 30(3): 1155-1177.

Abrahamson N, Gregor N and Addo K (2016). "BC Hydro ground motion prediction equations for subduction earthquakes". Earthquake Spectra, 32(1): 23-44.

Atkinson G and Boore D (2003). "Empirical ground-motion relations for subduction-zone earthquakes and their application to Cascadia and other regions". Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 93(4): 1703-1729.

Atkinson G and Boore D (2008). "Erratum to empirical ground-motion relations for subduction zone earthquakes and their application to Cascadia and other regions". Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 98(5): 2567-2569.

Zhao JX, Zhang J, Asano A, Ohno Y, Oouchi T, Takahashi T, Ogawa H, Irikura K, Thio H and Somerville P (2006). "Attenuation relations of strong ground motion in Japan using site classification based on predominant period". Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 96(3): 898-913.

Scherbaum F, Cotton F and Smit P (2004). "On the use of response spectral-reference data for the selection and ranking of ground-motion models for seismic-hazard analysis in regions of moderate seismicity: The case of rock motion". Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 94(6): 2164-2185.

Douglas J, Bertil D, Roullé A, Dominique P and Jousset P (2006). "A preliminary investigation of strong-motion data from the French Antilles". Journal of Seismology, 10(3): 271-299.

Douglas J and Mohais R (2009). "Comparing predicted and observed ground motions from subduction earthquakes in the Lesser Antilles". Journal of Seismology, 13(4): 577-587.

Allen T and Brillon C (2015). "Assessment of ground‐motion models for use in the British Columbia North Coast region, Canada". Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 105(2B): 1193-1205.

Stafford PJ, Strasser FO and Bommer JJ (2008). "An evaluation of the applicability of the NGA models to ground-motion prediction in the Euro-Mediterranean region". Bulletin of earthquake Engineering, 6(2): 149-177.

Scasserra G, Stewart J, Bazzurro P, Lanzo G and Mollaioli F (2009). "A comparison of NGA ground-motion prediction equations to Italian data". Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 99(5): 2961-2978.

Allen T and Wald D (2009). "Evaluation of ground-motion modeling techniques for use in Global ShakeMap - a critique of instrumental ground-motion prediction equations, peak ground motion to macroseismic intensity conversions, and macroseismic intensity predictions in different tectonic settings", Open File Report 2009-1047, United States Geological Survey, 122 p.

Scherbaum F, Delavaud E and Riggelsen C (2009). "Model selection in seismic hazard analysis: An information-theoretic perspective". Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 99(6): 3234-3247.

Beauval C, Tasan H, Laurendeau A, Delavaud E, Cotton F, Guéguen P and Kuehn N (2012). "On the testing of ground‐motion prediction equations against small‐magnitude data". Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 102(5): 1994-2007.

Delavaud E, Scherbaum F, Kuehn N and Allen T (2012). "Testing the global applicability of ground‐motion prediction equations for active shallow crustal regions". Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 102(2): 707-721.

Mousavi M, Ansari A, Zafarani H and Azarbakht A (2012). "Selection of ground motion prediction models for seismic hazard analysis in the Zagros region, Iran". Journal of Earthquake Engineering, 16(8): 1184-1207.

Edwards B and Douglas J (2013). "Selecting ground-motion models developed for induced seismicity in geothermal areas". Geophysical Journal International, 195(2): 1314-1322.

Haendel A, Specht S, Kuehn N and Scherbaum F (2015). "Mixtures of ground-motion prediction equations as backbone models for a logic tree: an application to the subduction zone in Northern Chile". Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering, 13(2): 483-501.

Standards New Zealand (2004). "NZS1170.5 Earthquake actions - New Zealand". Wellington, New Zealand.

Boore D, Watson-Lamprey J and Abrahamson N (2006). "Orientation-independent measures of ground motion". Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 96(4A): 1502-1511.

Power M, Chiou B, Abrahamson N, Bozorgnia Y, Shantz T and Roblee C (2008). "An overview of the NGA project". Earthquake Spectra, 24(1): 3-21.

Boore D (2010). "Orientation-independent, nongeometric-mean measures of seismic intensity from two horizontal components of motion". Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 100(4): 1830-1835.

Bradley B and Baker J (2015). "Ground motion directionality in the 2010–2011 Canterbury earthquakes". Earthquake Engineering & Structural Dynamics, 44(3): 371-384.

Eberhart-Phillips D and Reyners M (2001). "A complex, young subduction zone imaged by three-dimensional seismic velocity, Fiordland, New Zealand". Geophysical Journal International, 146(3): 731-746.

Reyners M, Robinson R, Pancha A and McGinty P (2002). "Stresses and strains in a twisted subduction zone— Fiordland, New Zealand". Geophysical Journal International, 148(3): 637-648.

Abrahamson N and Youngs R (1992). "A stable algorithm for regression analyses using the random effects model". Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 82(1): 505-510.

Al Atik L and Abrahamson N (2010). "Nonlinear site response effects on the standard deviations of predicted ground motions". Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 100(3): 1288-1292.

Stafford PJ (2015). "Extension of the Random-Effects Regression Algorithm to Account for the Effects of Nonlinear Site Response". Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 105(6): 3196-3202.

Van Houtte C, Ktenidou O-J, Larkin T and Kaiser A (2012). "Reference stations for Christchurch". Bulletin of the New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering, 45(4): 184-195.

Abrahamson N and Bommer J (2005). "Probability and uncertainty in seismic hazard analysis". Earthquake Spectra, 21(2): 603-607.

McGuire R, Cornell CA and Toro G (2005). "The case for using mean seismic hazard". Earthquake Spectra, 21(3): 879-886.

Musson R (2005). "Against fractiles". Earthquake Spectra, 21(3): 887-891.

Bommer J and Scherbaum F (2008). "The use and misuse of logic trees in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis". Earthquake Spectra, 24(4): 997-1009.

Scherbaum F and Kuehn NM (2011). "Logic tree branch weights and probabilities: summing up to one is not enough". Earthquake Spectra, 27(4): 1237-1251.

Bommer J (2012). "Challenges of building logic trees for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis". Earthquake Spectra, 28(4): 1723-1735.

Musson R (2012). "On the nature of logic trees in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment". Earthquake Spectra, 28(3): 1291-1296.

Atkinson G, Bommer J and Abrahamson N (2014). "Alternative Approaches to Modeling Epistemic Uncertainty in Ground Motions in Probabilistic Seismic‐Hazard Analysis". Seismological Research Letters, 85(6): 1141-1144.

Cotton F, Scherbaum F, Bommer J and Bungum H (2006). "Criteria for selecting and adjusting ground-motion models for specific target regions: Application to central Europe and rock sites". Journal of Seismology, 10(2): 137-156.

Bommer J, Douglas J, Scherbaum F, Cotton F, Bungum H and Fäh D (2010). "On the selection of ground-motion prediction equations for seismic hazard analysis". Seismological Research Letters, 81(5): 783-793.

Abrahamson N and Silva W (2008). "Summary of the Abrahamson & Silva NGA ground-motion relations". Earthquake Spectra, 24(1): 67-97.

Al Atik L and Youngs R (2014). "Epistemic uncertainty for NGA-West2 models". Earthquake Spectra, 30(3): 1301-1318.

Arroyo D, Ordaz M and Rueda R (2014). "On the Selection of Ground-Motion Prediction Equations for Probabilistic Seismic-Hazard Analysis". Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 104(4): 1860-1875.

Woessner J, Laurentiu D, Giardini D, Crowley H, Cotton F, Grünthal G, Valensise G, Arvidsson R, Basili R, Demircioglu M, Hiemer S, Meletti C, Musson R, Rovida A, Sesetyan K and Stucchi M (2015). "The 2013 European seismic hazard model: key components and results". Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering, 13(12): 3553-3596.

Abrahamson N, Addo K, Atkinson G, Chiou B, Gregor N, Silva W and Youngs R (2014). "Ground motion characterization for the BC Hydro SSHAC Level 3 study". In Proceedings of Tenth US National Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Frontiers of Earthquake Engineering, Anchorage, Alaska, 21-25 July,

R Core Team (2015). "A language and environment for statistical computing.", R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria, https://www.r-project.org/.

Pagani M, Monelli D, Weatherill G and Garcia J (2014). "Testing procedures adopted in the development of the hazard component of the OpenQuake engine". Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Technical Report 2014-09, Pavia, Italy, 73 p.

Global Earthquake Model (2014). GEM GitHub oq-hazardlib. https://github.com/gem/oq-hazardlib/tree/master/openquake/hazardlib/tests/gsim/data. (Accessed December 2015).

Baker Research Group (2015). Ground motion prediction equation functions. http://web.stanford.edu/~bakerjw/GMPEs.html. (Accessed December 2015).

Published
2017-03-31
How to Cite
Van Houtte, C. (2017). Performance of response spectral models against New Zealand data. Bulletin of the New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering, 50(1), 21-38. https://doi.org/10.5459/bnzsee.50.1.21-38
Section
Articles

Most read articles by the same author(s)